New Publication: Climate Skepticism in Germany and the USA

Dr. Liam F. Beiser-McGrath and Prof. Thomas Bernauer have just published a paper on the underreporting of climate skepticism in Germany and the USA. By using a list experiment, the study estimates that 23% and 13% of individuals in the USA and Germany do not believe in human-caused (anthropogenic) climate change, which is significantly higher than conventional estimates. The results suggest that current measures of belief in climate change may understate the amount of scepticism in the public.

The paper is published with Open Access at PLOS One.

Executive Summary:

• Surveys measuring the public’s belief in climate change may be susceptible to social desirability bias, with individuals potentially hiding their disbelief in climate change
• We used list experiments, a tool to measure sensitive attitudes and beliefs, to examine whether this is the case for belief in climate change in the USA and Germany.
• The list experiment finds that 23% and 13% of individuals in the USA and Germany do not believe in human-caused (anthropogenic) climate change, while direct questioning only finds 15% and 4% stating this opinion.
• Hidden disbelief in climate change is most pronounced for the richest 20% of individuals in the USA (40%) and supporters of Angela Merkel’s CDU/CSU party in Germany (23%).
• The results suggest that current measures of belief in climate change may understate the amount of scepticism in the public.